The 2025 MLB trade deadline is fast approaching, and we’ve heard rumblings about several notable Pirates who could be on the move. Ben Cherington is still at the helm, a fact that concerns me and everyone else, though a small case can be made for his continued presence this season. Given that he’s still running the show, here are my personal 2025 trade deadline predictions. It’s not extensive, so stick with me for a few moments.
Anyone on an Expiring Deal Gets Traded
This is the most obvious prediction. Andrew Heaney, Caleb Ferguson, Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are all on expiring deals. I’m fairly certain all or most of them will be traded. And the return for each of them is likely to be something small unless Ben Cherington’s ability to make trades has greatly improved over the past few months. At a minimum, they might be able to acquire some lottery tickets or a player or two blocked in the upper minors.
They Deal Pitching for Offense
This is the part that scares me. Ben Cherington has done nothing during his tenure to prove he can make any worthwhile trades. His best trade so far was dealing Rodolfo Castro for Bailey Falter. It’s also possible another one or two of his trades work out well somewhere down the line, but I doubt he will be around to see it. With that said, I think he will be given the green light to trade someone like Mitch Keller or David Bednar in order to acquire some offense. I also think he will trade a MiLB pitcher or two to do the same. I won’t speculate on the returns for those guys, but I’d imagine trading Keller or Bednar would net them prospects and maybe one MLB player or a player blocked at AAA. If they are trading a young pitcher away, I’d bet it’s for someone who is already at least somewhat established in MLB. One name that comes to mind simply because Ben Cherington loves to trade with his former teams is Addison Barger. This isn’t to say I want Addison Barger on the Pirates, but I could totally see Cherington trying to get him.
He Won’t Burn the Place Down
By far, the most important prediction. Yes, the Pirates don’t have enough talent on the current roster to realistically compete this season or probably next season either unless they acquire some offense. However, they do have some genuinely decent players that I’d like to see stick around. We’ve heard noise about Mitch Keller, Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, David Bednar, Dennis Santana, and even Paul Skenes although that won’t happen (right? right?!). I’m fine with seeing guys on expiring deals go and I’m even fine if they trade one or two of those players we’ve heard noise about, but I don’t think he does a fire sale. The return for any of those players would need to be super meaningful, I think, for him to pull the trigger. I also don’t think Bob Nutting would give the green light for trading away a bunch of those players. We’ve already endured enough losing during Cherington’s tenure and we’d rather not see it continue for several more years into the next GM’s tenure. I’m sure they know this so they won’t burn it down. Fingers crossed that they don’t.