With the MLB trade deadline fast approaching, the Pittsburgh Pirates are, once again, confirmed sellers. Though they will also do a little buying as well. And overseeing this crucial period is General Manager Ben Cherington, the very architect of the team that has failed to rebuild into a successful unit during his tenure. For a fan base desperate for progress, this reality transforms the deadline from a source of hope into a period of dread.
The moves to be made can be broken down into three categories: the obvious, the desperate, and the unthinkable. Each tells its own story about the state of this franchise.
The Obvious: Liquidating the Rentals
This is the easiest prediction because it’s simple house-cleaning. Players on expiring contracts: Andrew Heaney, Caleb Ferguson, Tommy Pham, Adam Frazier, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be traded. It is nearly a foregone conclusion.
The return for these players will likely be negligible. So don’t expect too much from these trades. These are not moves that are likely to alter the franchise’s trajectory. This is simply the act of converting expiring assets into something, anything, of value. It is the bare minimum.
The Desperate: Trading Strength for Weakness
Herein lies the true fear of this deadline. Having proven utterly incapable of drafting or developing impact offense, Cherington’s only remaining path to acquiring it is through trade. And the only valuable currency he possesses is the one thing his organization does well: pitching.
His track record in this area is abysmal. His most successful trade to date is arguably the deal that sent Rodolfo Castro to Philadelphia for Bailey Falter. Entrusting him to trade from a position of strength like the team’s pitching staff is a terrifying prospect. A major move involving Mitch Keller or David Bednar, or even a package of high-level pitching prospects, is distressingly plausible.
A trade of this nature would be an act of desperation. And given Cherington’s history, the return would likely be underwhelming. His affinity for familiar players from his past, weak hitting middle infielders, and players who fit with his offensive approach has not moved the needle thus far.
The Line in the Sand: No Fire Sale
Despite the noise surrounding names like Mitch Keller, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and even Paul Skenes, a full “burn it down” fire sale is not going to happen.
First, a general manager on the hot seat usually isn’t given the mandate to trade off a bunch of valuable assets. That is a job for his successor. Second, owner Bob Nutting is not going to approve trading off that many assets knowing he would be further alienating what remains of the fanbase. While a significant piece like Keller or Bednar might be moved in a desperate act, the core of the team will remain.
This trade deadline will not save the Pirates’ season. It will serve as a final, damning referendum on Ben Cherington’s tenure. It is a period where the man who built the broken machine will be given the tools to try and fix it, and the fanbase is left to watch and hope he doesn’t make things even worse.